The Cloudy Crystal Ball
Dear Forecasters:
The Clarus Research Group has released its latest telephone poll of
voters’ preferences in the mayoral and council chairman races. See its
shorter press release at http://www.dcwatch.com/election2010/100818a.htm
and more complete details at http://www.dcwatch.com/election2010/100818b.htm.
What you take away from the poll results depends largely on the bias
that you bring to them. The Washington Post spins them as “Poll
finds Gray holds slim lead over Fenty,” http://voices.washingtonpost.com/dc/2010/08/poll_finds_gray_holds_slim_lea.html,
writing that, “The DC mayoral race is a near dead heat as candidates
begin their final month of campaigning, according to a new independent
poll, the Post’s Mike DeBonis reports. Vincent Gray holds a
slim lead over incumbent Adrian Fenty, 39 percent to 36 percent, Clarus
Research Group determined in a live telephone poll of 501 registered
Democrats. Among poll respondents who identified themselves as ‘very
likely’ to vote in the primary, Gray holds a slightly larger advantage
— 41 to 36 percent. In both cases, the proportion of undecided voters
is more than 20 percent. The poll has a 4.4 percent margin of error. ‘Gray
now has the edge, but this race is far from over,’ said Clarus
President Ron Faucheux in a release.”
On the other hand, the Gray campaign broadcast an E-mail from Mo
Elleithee, a senior adviser to the campaign, that spun the results this
way: “Today’s poll by Clarus Research Group shows what we’ve known
all along — that this is, and will continue to be, a close race. The
poll results, however, do contain some very encouraging news for the
Gray campaign, and some very troubling news for Adrian Fenty. Among
likely voters, Vince Gray holds a five-point lead over Fenty: 41
percent-36 percent. In a head-to-head match up, Gray leads Fenty by six
points: 44 percent-38 percent. That six-point lead is up from four
points in the November Clarus poll. Among likely voters in a
head-to-head match up, Gray leads by eight points: 46 percent-38
percent. In every single vote scenario, Adrian Fenty receives less than
40 percent of the vote. Only 46 percent of District residents view Fenty
favorably, while 42 percent view him unfavorably. By contrast, 55
percent of District residents view Gray favorably, while only 20 percent
view him unfavorably. Similarly, less than half (49 percent) of District
residents approve of the job Fenty is doing, while 41 percent
disapprove. By contrast, the Gray-led DC council has a 62 percent
approval rating, with only 22 percent disapproving.
“So what does this all mean? Simply put, the fundamental dynamics
of this race have not changed since Vince Gray declared his candidacy in
the spring. Despite his much ballyhooed fundraising advantage, and after
spending millions of dollars on his campaign, Adrian Fenty has not been
able to significantly alter his numbers.”
We’re getting close to the wire. How do you read the poll results?
Do you think that 20 percent of voters are undecided? Are any readers of
themail undecided? Convince the wavering, in this and other races. Read
the shadows floating in the crystal ball, and explain their meaning to
us.
#####
In the last issue, I asked for any inside-the-campaign tips that
readers may have. Here are two: the Fenty campaign has not done any
polls on its own (to the reader’s knowledge), as I had speculated, but
did hire a research organization to do a few focus groups. Second, Peter
Hart and Associates do have a poll in the field (for whom?). C’mon,
share what you know. Information is more valuable the more widely it’s
shared.
#####
Did anybody else notice how glum and distant Mayor Bloomberg and
Mayor Fenty were at Bloomberg’s endorsement event? They didn’t pat
each other on the back or embrace each other; they didn’t even smile
at each other. Neither one broke into a smile during the whole event.
Body language spoke more loudly than words that day.
Gary Imhoff
themail@dcwatch.com
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Questions for Everyone about Fiscal Management
Denise Wiktor, Denisewiktor@yahoo.com
I wonder about Fenty’s attack ads on Gray for “financial
mismanagement.” First, one is a little misleading in that it compares
the entire DHS budget to the shortfall, appearing that Gray was
responsible for a quarter of the shortfall. Second, Fenty himself was
more recently admonished, in 2005, for mismanagement of a client’s
estate. Do we want to go back that far? I am more concerned about Fenty’s
constant overspending of his “balanced budget” and the council’s
letting him get away with it, including taking fifty million from the
Rainy Day Fund without council approval last summer. His budget included
dipping into many special funds, again approved by all councilmembers,
but I would hold the chairs of the committees overseeing that use
responsible. Twelve FTE’s were paid from the disability compensation
fund while I was there, which was directly contrary to the statute. I
raised the issue, so a one-time exemption was drafted by the council to
allow it. There are over one hundred sixty special funds. How many have
been dipped into for purposes other than which they were created? What
individual citizens will suffer as a result?
There was the Parks and Recs contracts, but there was also a one
hundred fifty million dollar contract to one company through which all
LSDBE’s have to go through to contract with the District for IT
contracts. Instead of diversifying the contractors used, as it claimed
it would, the same people are being used over and over again, and OCTO
applied for many exemptions at the beginning of the contract to pay
higher rates.
Finally, I don’t hear anyone, current councilmembers or the mayor,
committing to stopping this earmark stuff. I want to hear someone say,
especially those running for chair, that this earmarking will stop —
and not just the temporary stop we have now. This didn’t happen in the
late 1990’s and early 2000’s, and I believe it has undermined the
agencies overseen by the big earmarkers and by those members who could
get to put them in for them so they could not be traced back.
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Fenty has chalked up another endorsement. The highly prized backing
of Michael Bloomberg has landed in Fenty’s lap. It’s well known that
Bloomberg has been Fenty’s mentor, so why is it big news that the
mayor of New York has shown his protege favor? Do residents of the
District care if the mayor of New York endorses Adrian Fenty --
absolutely not! Would a New Yorker care if Adrian Fenty endorsed Michael
Bloomberg? Most New Yorkers don’t know who Adrian Fenty is, but they
may get to know him after the September primary, when he’ll be looking
for a new job.
###############
Use a Compass, Not a Weather Vane
Alvin Frost, alvincfrost@msn.com
I ran for elective office, representing the DC Statehood Party, three
times: 1) the mayoral primary in 1986, 2) the general election nonvoting
DC Representative Candidate in 1988, and 3) the general election mayoral
candidate in 1990. Although I did not become an elected DC official as a
result of those three candidacies, I did learn quite lot about
campaigning, and the vast difference between being a winning candidate
and being a good elected official. Getting elected does not guarantee a
successful administration, no matter how many votes are won.
In Washington, DC, and in most other American mayoral elections, the
most important qualifiers seems to be: 1) the amount of money that is
raised for your candidacy; 2) the number of people actively willing to
volunteer on your behalf; 3) the number and perceived importance of your
endorsements; 4) your personality and communicative skills; and 5) the
quality of your experience, plans, and ideas if elected. I believe that
this pyramid is inverted, and often times will result in elected
officials who are more a reflection of their supporters and endorsers,
and not automatically inclined or capable of working for the greater
good of the city, and not necessarily for those who did not help to get
them elected but for those who need good government and a great mayor
even more.
My intent in writing a series about how I think that DC voters should
consider and compare the various candidates for elected office in DC, in
particular for mayor, is to try to offer the suggestion that by using
specific factors for comparison between the different candidates, that
it would be comparable to using a compass to help to determine where DC
needs to go in the near future, and which candidate is best suited to
get us to that destination, which is definitely not the “promised land”
because promises made in the heat of a politically charged campaign are
often not worth the breath used to shout them. Anything else would be
comparable to using a weather vane to select a mayor, based upon the
heat and turbulent winds of the moment, and not upon calm and reasoned
reflection.
My intention is to offer a measurement tool, and not to tell you who
to vote for. If you want to use different factors upon which to
construct your tool to measure and compare the different candidates,
then have at it, but if you are only going to use a few selected factors
upon which to make your decision, then you are potentially selling your
vote and your future short, but, more importantly, you will definitely
be selling the future of Washington, DC, short, and we can ill afford
shortsighted, biased, and prejudiced reasons for deciding to support
and/or vote for one candidate for DC mayor as opposed to another. It
would be as if the candidates were profiled, which would make your
resulting vote comparable to a drive by shooting. The issues this year
are much too complicated, the citizens and sectors of DC that are
at-risk and in greatest need of focused, intelligent and committed
leadership cannot afford shortsighted decisions in the Tuesday,
September 14, primary. Vote carefully, and wisely.
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Seven Keys to Mayoral Success
Veronica Cooper, Fort Worth, TX, vc0813@yahoo.com
I read the article you posted by Alvin C. Frost [themail, August 15]
and I thought, “This is a fascinating strategy for the mayor of DC.”
It would be a great idea for the mayor to really pay attention to what
is listed in this article and follow through on this plan. These are the
most assuredly the “Keys to Mayoral Success in Washington, DC.”
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Guess you’re not a football fan. I wrote [themail, August 8], “The
neighborhood was blindsided by bulldozers.” You changed this to, “The
neighborhood was blind sided by bulldozers.” Nope, not right; “blindsided”
is one word, not two. See, for example, the attached from the New
York Times: “America was blindsided by Hurricane Katrina.” Yes,
one word, the verb, “to blindside,” from football, referring to a
quarterback being hit from behind.
I really appreciate your twice-weekly letter. But you tend to edit
things that don’t need editing.
[The Online Etymology Dictionary dates “blind side,” as two
words, back to 1600, and “blindside,” as one word, back to only
1968. Isn’t that just too recent a usage for us to accept as correct?
Actually, I blame the blindsiding problem Jack cites on my
spell-checker. I accept the rulings of the spell-checker unless I
personally quarrel with them; for example, I’m in favor of “townhall”
meetings, and don’t change them to “town hall” meetings. But I
didn’t have any strong feelings about “blind sided” or “blindsided.”
Jack has convinced me to eliminate the space in the future, or at least
to accept writers’ preferences about whether to write it as one or two
words. — Gary Imhoff]
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CLASSIFIEDS — EVENTS
Department of Parks and Recreation Events,
August 21-22
John Stokes, john.astokes@dc.gov
August 21, 10:00 a.m.-6:00 p.m., Turkey Thicket Community Center,
1100 Michigan Avenue, NE. Dr. Hammonds’ Community Day and Boxing Show
for all ages. Community Day Festival will honor the memory of the late
Dr. Karl Hammonds for all his contributions to our youth and the
community. This event will feature moon bounce, face painting, tennis
demonstration and talent display activities for kids three through ten.
There will also be a Boxing Competition starting at 3:00 p.m. This
festival is free to the public. For more information, call Marshall
Cunningham, Boxing Coordinator, at 207-5396.
August 21, 11:00 a.m.-3:00 p.m., North Michigan Park Recreation
Center, 1333 Emerson Street, NE. Back to School Rally for ages five
through sixteen. Youth will come together in a fulfilled atmosphere to
participate in various activities as well as be given a few school
supplies and light refreshments. For more information, call Joe Clark,
site manager, at 541-3526.
August 21, 12:00 p.m.-4:00 p.m., Turkey Thicket Recreation Center,
1100 Michigan Avenue, NE. Hoop'n 4 Peace Back to School Go-Go Basketball
Tournament for all ages. Turkey Thicket will host a Hoop'n 4 Peace Back
to School Go-Go Basketball Tournament which will consist of the
community being entertained by some of the most popular go-go bands in
the DC area during a full court intense basketball tournament. For more
information, call Jason Lewis, Recreation Specialist, at 576-9238.
August 21, 11:00 a.m.-4:00 p.m., Brentwood Recreation Center, 2311
14th Street, NE. Back to School Day for ages five through eighteen.
Participants will have an opportunity to receive book bags, school
supplies, uniforms and or vouchers, food, health screenings, games, and
prizes. For more information, call Lorenzo Carter, site manager, at
576-6667.
August 21, 9:00 a.m.-5:00 p.m., Brentwood Recreation Center, 2311
14th Street, NE. Trinidad Community Day Event for all ages. The
community will come together with a parade, entertainment, fun
activities, information tables, and refreshments to bring togetherness
within the Trinidad community. For more information, call Anthony
Higginbotham, site manager, at 727-1293.
August 21, 11:00 a.m.-3:00 p.m., North Michigan Park Recreation
Center, 1333 Emerson Street, NE. NMP Back to School Rally for ages five
through sixteen. Youth will come together in a fulfilled atmosphere to
participate in various activities as well as be given a few school
supplies and light refreshments. For more information, call Joe Clark,
Site Manager, at 541-3522.
August 22, 3:00 p.m., Watkins Field, Walter (Wookie) Redmond Men’s
Fast Pitch All-Star Game for ages eighteen and up. This is the first
ever All-Star game in honor of Walter (Wookie) Redmond, who was an
outstanding pitcher in the DC Sunday Softball League during the early
1960-1990. For more information, call Luna Harrison at 316-4249.
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DCCA — Dupont Circle Conservancy Fundraiser,
August 25
Robin Diener, president@dupont-circle.org
An end-of-summer fundraiser for the Dupont Circle Conservancy will be
held at the hyper-cool Policy Restaurant, which will lend its second
floor lounge and deck for a last-days-of-summer sip and dip. There will
be a complimentary hors d’oeuvres, a cash bar, and a portion of
proceeds will be donated to the Dupont Circle Conservancy. Dress code:
August in DC — seersucker, flip flops, no water guns please. Stay for
supper in the stylish first floor dining room if you fancy offerings
like tandoori spiced scallops or red curried lentils with cauliflower
dumplings. Policy Restaurant, 1904 14th Street, NW, 6:00-9:00 p.m.
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